Thailand Rice Quotes Advance as Government Checks Stocks

Jul 03, 2014 – oryza

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The Oryza White Rice Index, a weighted average of global white rice export quotes, ended this week at about $465 per ton, up about $4 per ton from a week and a month ago, and down about $9 per ton from a year ago.

 

The International Grains Council (IGC) estimates that 2014 world rice trade will reach a record 40 million tons, about 5% more than the 38 million tons traded in 2013, due to increased imports by Far East Asian and African countries.  The IGC estimates that global rice output in 2013-14 will be about 476 million tons, an increase of about 1% from 2012-13.  Global rice consumption will also increase, according to the IGC, to about 476 million tons, about 2% more than in 2012-13.  Global ending stocks in 2013-14 will decline to about 109 million tons, down from 110 million tons the previous year, according to the IGC.

The UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) estimates 2014 global rice production will reach 503.6 million tons (about 755.4 million tons, basis paddy).  This is an increase of about 1% from 2013.  It estimates 2015 global rice stocks will be about 183 million tons, up about 1% from the estimate for 2014.

Thailand

Thailand 5% broken rice is today shown at about $410 per ton, up about $25 per ton, from a week ago, up about $30 per ton from a month ago and down about $70 per ton from a year ago.

The Bank of Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) will offer about 137 billion baht (about $4 billion) in loans to rice farmers for cultivation subsidy and soft loans, according to local sources.  The loans are part of the military government’s plan to help rice farmers after ending the rice pledging scheme.  Meanwhile, the military government has announced that a general election could be held in October 2015, according to the New York Times.

The IGC estimates that Thailand’s rice exports will increase to about 9.2 million tons this year.

India

India 5% broken rice is today shown at about $435 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down about $5 per ton from a month ago and down about $10 per ton from a year ago.

The IGC estimates that India will export about 9.7 million tons of rice in 2014, 8% less than in 2013.

The Indian Meteorological Department lowered its probability of El Nino occurring this monsoon season from 80% to 60%, according to local sources.

The government has decided to release 5 million tons of rice from the Central Pool to contain inflation and curb price hikes, and India’s Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved the respective State governments and Union Territories to distribute it at Below Poverty Line and Above Poverty Line prices for the period July 2014-March 2015, according to the CCEA.

Vietnam

Vietnam 5% broken rice is today shown at about $420 per ton, up about $10 per ton from  a week ago, up about $15 per ton from a month ago and up about $50 per ton from a year ago.

During the period January 1-June 26, Vietnam exported about 2.848 million tons of rice, about 19% less than January-June 2013, according to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA).  The average price of rice for export is about $432 per ton (FOB), about $1 per ton more than the same time in 2013.

The IGC estimates that Vietnam’s rice exports will decrease to about 6.3 million tons this year, from 6.7 million tons last year.

Pakistan

Pakistan 5% broken rice is quoted at about $435 per ton, down about $10 per ton from a week ago, down about $15 per ton from a month ago and up about $10 per ton from a year ago.

During the first eleven months (July-May) of fiscal year 2013-14 (July-June), Pakistan has exported about 2.9 million tons of rice, down about 8% from the same period in FY2012-13, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.  However, in terms of value, Pakistan’s exports are up.  During the same period, the country has earned about $2 billion from rice exports, an increase of about 14% from the same period in FY 2012-13.

Brazil

The Brazilian paddy rice index maintained by CEPEA reached around 36.47 real per 50 kilograms as of June 30, 2014, down about 0.1% from about 36.49 real per 50 kilograms recorded on June 23, 2014.   In terms of USD per ton, the index reached at about $331 per ton on June 30, 2014, up about 1.4% from about $327 per ton recorded on June 23, 2014.

The USDA Post estimates Brazil will export about 950,000 tons of rice in MY 2013-14, an increase of about 13% from last year.  The Post estimates Brazil will import about 700,000 tons of rice in MY 2013-14, an increase of about 9% from the previous year.

There are still no quotes for Brazilian 5% broken rice; 5% broken rice from Uruguay and Argentina is today shown at about $625 per ton, unchanged from a week, a month and a year ago. During the period January-April, Argentina has exported about 212,051 tons of rice, an increase of about 33% from the same period in 2013, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.

U.S.

U.S. 4% broken rice today shown at about $555 per ton, down about $20 per ton from a week ago, down about $25 per ton from a month ago and down about $60 per ton from a year ago.

Chicago rough rice futures for September delivery started the week low, at about $13.525 per cwt (about $298 per ton) but slowly climbed, reaching a high of $13.695 per cwt (about $302 per ton) Wednesday before closing at $13.570 per cwt Thursday (about $299 per ton).

Other Markets:

Cambodia 5% broken rice is today shown at about $445 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, up about $5 per ton from a month ago.

The Philippines has reduced the tariff on rice imported under the Minimum Access Volume (MAV) to 35% from the previous 40%, according to local sources.  In further efforts to stabilize rice supplies and prices, the National Food Authority will also release huge amounts of low-priced rice to address hoarding by some traders.  The NFA hopes to double the number of rice distribution centers.

Before the end of the month, South Korea will announce its position on rice import liberalization.  The country’s current import quotas expire at the end of this year.

The Iraq Grains Board (IGB) has issued an international tender to purchase a minimum of 30,000 tons of rice with bids accepted until July 6, according to Reuters.

The Ente Nazionale Risi, Italy’s National Agency for Rice, has criticized the new Common Agricultural Policy for European Union member states, claiming it does not protect Italian and other European rice farmers from global competition, according to local sources.

Delayed rains during the wet season will likely impact Laos paddy rice production, making it difficult for the country to reach its target of 3.8-4 million tons in 2014, according to local sources.

Paddy rice production in 2014 in Indonesia is expected to reach about 69.8 million tons, according to the country’s Central Statistics Agency.  This is about 2% less than the previous year, due to a decline in area harvested and yields. Separately, the Deputy Agriculture Minister for Indonesia has announced that the government will not need to import rice in 2014 because domestic production will meet demand.

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