Soya ends lower
October 11, 2012: US soyabeans erased the day’s gains to end slightly lower on Tuesday before a key US government crop report as a rally in the dollar overwhelmed expectations that a move by China to stimulate the economy could increase demand. Technical buying had supported the benchmark November contract – which has tumbled 13 percent from its all-time high of $17.94-3/4 per bushel set on September 4 – after it closed above the 100-day moving average of $15.36-1/4 on Monday.
The US Department of Agriculture’s monthly report on Thursday could help chart the next course of the drought rally that took prices to record highs this summer before retreating amid profit-taking and pressure from the advancing harvest. In a weekly report on Tuesday, the USDA said farmers had harvested 69 percent of this year’s corn crop, just under the 70 percent average expected by 17 analysts polled by Reuters.
The crop progress report said 58 percent of the soyabean crop was harvested as of Sunday, below expectations for 61 percent. The tally compares with 54 percent and 41 percent, respectively, in the previous week. November soyabeans 1 cent to end at $15.50 a bushel. December corn was unchanged at $7.42, while December wheat ended 3-1/4 cents higher at $8.64-1/4. “There was a brief moment of excitement, but people began taking money off the table. They are getting ready for the (USDA) report more than anything,” said Jack Scoville, vice president of Price Futures Group in Chicago. Wheat was supported by expectations the USDA would reduce its estimate of production in leading exporters Australia and Russia and trim its forecast of global wheat stocks.
November soyabeans, which finished 1.5 percent off the day’s high, were supported earlier by China injecting cash into its currency markets, which was seen by analysts as a possible precursor to more stimulus the world’s No 2 economy. “A little stimulus like this goes a long way in the current economic environment,” said Sterling Smith, market specialist for Citigroup.
China, the top importer of soyabeans and the No 1 market for the United States, pumped 265 billion yuan ($42.2 billion) into the money markets – the second-largest gross injection on record. The move raised hopes the world’s second-largest economy could do even more to boost growth. The USDA is expected to show the 2012/13 corn harvest at the smallest in six years and corn supplies could dwindle to 17-year lows by next summer as a result of the worst US drought in 56 years, a Reuters poll showed.