Rains, Rains and more Rains – Punjab
Dry, dry and more dry – Sindh
Low pressure: What will happen now?
Pakistan: Past conditions
While entering the month of August, the northern areas (only) experienced the fifth monsoon spell that started from July 30 and lasted till August 2. The intensity of the fifth spell was weak due to the absence of westerlies. The highest rainfall during the 5th spell occurred in Kotli, Azad Kashmir that was 49 mm on July 31. Apart from the northern areas, the central as well as the southern parts of Pakistan remained dry with passing clouds coming from neighbouring India. Temperature across the country were around normal and no significant rise was seen the province of Sindh.
Factors: Present conditions
- Western disturbance ’16′
- Low pressure (BOB)
- Upper air cyclonic circulations
*Western disturbance ’16′ was seen persisting over north-eastern Afghanistan and adjoining northern Pakistan as it moved eastwards. On August 3, it moved into northern areas and on August 5, it moved north-wards.
*Upper air cyclonic circulations formed over north-west India on August 4.
*Upper air cyclonic circulations formed on August 2 in the north-west Bay of Bengal, intensified into a low pressure at 1008 mbar the next day. On August 3, it moved slowly into the coast of West Bengal and Orissa. On August 5, it was seen over Jharkand and adjoining area.
Upcoming activity over Pakistan
Precipitation – Temperature: August 12
The Low pressure is not showing a mature track, although expected to weaken once it moves over central India and dissipate before affecting Pakistan directly. Some models indicate that the weather system would move towards south-western India that is Maharashtra, eastern Gujarat and adjoining Rajasthan (dissipating on August 8), somewhat closer to the seasonal trough near western coast while other show that the system would move towards north-north-westward India where it would dissipate.
No matter which track it chooses, the low would send monsoon moisture to the eastern parts of the country.
- Sixth monsoon spell
The province of Punjab experienced the heaviest rainfall of the current monsoon season that brought death, destruction and isolated river floods. The sixth monsoon spell was the heaviest as it dropped above 100 mm rainfall in many cities of northern Punjab including Islamabad. Pakistan Weather Portal (PWP) on August 1 forecasted the sixth spell from August 2 evening/night/August 3. On August 3, PWP said that there are 65% chance of heavy rainfall with strong winds in northern parts of the country as PWP updated about significant rainfall occurring in northern half from August 3 night/August 4. Significant rainfall recorded in Punjab during the sixth spell;
- Islamabad got 142 mm.
- Gujranwala got 123 mm.
- Lahore got 110 mm.
- Mangla got 103 mm.
- Chakwal got 97 mm.
- Rawalpindi got 75 mm.
The sixth monsoon spell got a boost from the western disturbance ’16′ and since it has moved further into China, hence the monsoon spell has come to an amazing end. Mostly dry weather is expected till few days in the northern half including Islamabad however passing showers could occur in extreme northern areas.
- Fresh Spell?
Fresh monsoon rainfall is expected in Islamabad, Lahore, Gujranwala, Sialkot, Rawalpindi, Peshawar, Murree, Muzaffaraad and other adjoining cities of the northern half from August 8 late/August 9. This spell could be weaker than the sixth spell depending upon the westerlies and monsoon moisture. Hence PWP on August 5, forecasts the chance of seventh spell to ‘high’, it would be upgraded. Another monsoon spell would also brew after the seventh.
- Fourth monsoon Spell
Future – Most Pak remains dry
PWP forecasted on August 1, the fourth spell in the central areas (south Punjab) from August 4/August 5. However the rainfall has not occurred in the area till now despite witnessing heavy cloud presence in the western side. There are still chances of rainfall in South Punjab including Multan till 36 hours after that the conditions would dry up.
- Fresh Spell?
As the northern parts would experience the seventh spell from August 8 late, during this period south Punjab could witness passing clouds with chances of drizzle/isolated shower. A proper spell of rainfall could be near the central parts on the middle of August.
- Third Monsoon Spell
PWP on August 3 forecasted the third spell in some parts of Sindh from August 6/August 7 while PWP upgraded the chance of the spell from ’poor’ to ’moderate’ on August 5. The westerlies have once again started dominating the country, western winds along with the monsoon moisture coming from UAC (being fueled by the low pressure over east) have caused few thunderclouds to form over north-west Sindh that could bring some showers to the drought-hit parts.
Hence there are chances of showers, mostly mild with fast winds in upper Sindh (Jacobabad, Sukkur, Larkana and few adjoining cities), while chances of drizzle/isolated shower in central Sindh (Hyderabad and Nawabshah), eastern Sindh (Mirpur Khas and Tharparkar) on August 6. Coastal Sindh including Karachi would remain dry with chances of drizzle.
- Fresh Spell?
No bright chances yet! If same condition prevails till middle of August, then PWP fears that Sindh would start to enter a moderate version of drought that could be alarming.
Death toll this monsoon
Five people died till July 31 in rain-related incident, the number has risen since 1 person died in Lahore while 3 died in Rawalpindi due to rain and winds since the monsoon death toll rises to 9.