M RAFIQUE GORAYA
According to the Flood Forecasting Centre, the water flow in River Indus increased from 160,000 cusecs to 242,000 cusecs – an addition of 82,000 cusecs; In River Jhelum the flow increased from 21,000 cusecs to 60,000 cusecs and in River Chenab the flow increased from 56,000 cusecs to 99,000 cusecs at Marala Headworks. The water level in Tarbela and Mangla dams rose by 10 feet and continue to rise, the reports added.
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER/FLASH FLOOD ADVISORY Latest Meteorological conditions indicated that a marked rain-bearing weather system is likely to produce moderate to heavy rains over the next 48 hours (Thursday-Friday) over Kohat, Bannu, Peshawar, Mardan and Hazara divisions, which might result in flash floods of medium to high intensity in Kabul, Kurram, Gambela and Swat rivers and their tributaries.
Heavy to very heavy rainfalls in Azad Kashmir, Rawalpindi, Gujranwala, Sargodha and Sahiwal divisions could also cause flash flooding in local riverine areas, FFC added. has requested all authorities concerned to take adequate precautionary measures to avoid any loss of life and property. There have already been some casualties because of house collapses and other rain-related incidents. .
SYNOPTIC SITUATION A seasonal low lies over Balochistan and its adjoining areas with its trough extending south-east wards. Under its influence, strong monsoon currents are penetrating in upper parts of the country. Monsoon current is penetrating into Azad Kashmir and adjoining sub-mountain areas of Punjab up to 5,000 feet.
FORECAST FOR TODAY Fairly widespread thunderstorm/rain with isolated heavy to very heavy falls (alongwith extremely heavy falls at one or two places) is expected over Azad Kashmir, North and Northeast Punjab(Lahore, Gujranwala and Rawalpindi divisions). Scattered thunderstorm/rain with isolated heavy falls is expected over some areas of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Sahiwal, Faisalabad and Sargodha Divisions.
Scattered thunderstorm/rain is also expected over Gilgit-Baltistan. Isolated thunderstorm/rain is likely to occur over southern Punjab, Qalat and Mirpurkhas divisions.
WEATHER OVER NEXT 48 HRS Scattered rain/thundershower is expected over Azad Kashmir, Hazara, Islamabad/Rawalpindi, Lahore and Gujranwala divisions. Hot and humid weather elsewhere in the country.
WEATHER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. Widespread rains/thundershowers occurred at Upper Punjab, Hazara and Peshawer division while scattered rains/thundershowers occurred in Azad Kashmir and Malakand division. Weather remained hot and humid elsewhere in the country.
RAINFALL (MM) RECORDED AT 1700 PST DURING LAST 24 HOURS: Muzaffarabad 103 milimetres Kakul=84mm, Murree=77, Jhelum=76, Sialkot A/P=74, Mandi-Bahauddin=60, Mangla=39, Kotli=37, Sialkot Cantt=32, Cherat=29, Saidu Sharif=21, Islamabad Zero Point=14, Rawalakot=12, Muzaffarabad=10, Gujranwala=8, Malamjabba and Balakot=4 (each), Islamabad Airport and Chakwal=2 (each), Dir, Lahore Airport and Okara=1 (each), Lahore city and Sahiwal=Trace.
RIVERS AND HYDROLOGICAL SITUATION:
ALERT: Due to isolated heavy falls along with extremely heavy falls at one or two places, high flood is expected in Nullahs of Rivers Ravi and Chenab catchments. Medium to High Flood is also expected in Rivers Chenab and Jhelum over the next two days. FFC said that River Indus is likely to be in low flood at Tarbela, Kalabagh and Chashma on Thursday. River Kabul is forecasted to be in low flood at Nowshera, River Jhelum is likely to be in low- to medium-flood at Mangla and River Chenab is likely to be in low- to medium-flood at Marala and Khanki headworks. River Ravi may attain low-flood level at Shahdara during the next 24 hours.